Abstract:

Design is a creative and prospective discipline. More than predicting them, design creates futures.
From a business perspective, research needs to situate new products in plausible future contexts, in
order to reduce risks and improve innovation.
The creation of future scenarios can be seen as a starting point for designing. They have the potential
to help the design industry create products inscribed in a particular and defined context. There is a
twofold advantage. Firstly, designers can use the proposed scenarios as tools to create new solutions.
Secondly, if the scenarios are appropriately constructed, the business risks decrease. This is because
the product would respond to the needs and opportunities defined by informed decisions.
This paper describes some methodologies used in different disciplines for scenario building, including
business and marketing. It mentions some examples in design, highlighting the difference between
trends forecasting and scenario building.
A new model for building future scenarios is presented: contextual futures. The model helps create
contextual starting points for designing. It makes use of tools such as Delphi and the ViP approach.
The paper shows some examples of projects carried out at Victoria University of Wellington with
industry partners, as part of the Design Led Futures initiative.